The numbers of the GIP, with retraction of 3,6% in the last trimester of 2008, do not leave doubt: the crisis left of being financial (bankruptcy of banks/brokers, uncertainty in the shareholding market) to become economic (retraction of the demand, excess of offers, unemployment). At this current moment it does not advance to think about ' ' marolinha' ' as president Lula says or ' ' tsunami' ' as economist Nouriel Roubino thinks. It is hour to join the cacos and to reflect on what is happening, mainly, as we go to leave this. In this direction I consider the attention in some points: Patience, the recovery will take some tempoA contraction is global: the exportations, the production and the consumption are falling of sped up form. The contrary winds are very strong, in reason of the extreme leverage, the engaged rockings and the consequent squeeze of the credit.
The main financial institutions can be insolvent; it is difficult to evaluate its accounting books. global growth is come close to the zero, and the economies of all the advanced countries probably will shrink in 2009. These factors had provoked a reduction of the consumption and, later, the decline of the investments and the job. With this, the sales, the profits, the quality of the credit and, completing the circle, the values of the assets had fallen. If transparent the fast governments will be in its intentions and to intervine in way co-ordinated in the real economy and the financial sector, probably we will have deep a global contraction up to 2010. If not to make it, probably the situation will be aggravated still more.
Economy will come back to normality in 2010Os economists hesitates in foreseeing the future, and with reason. But, analyzing the current picture of the crisis we arrive the two conclusions: not it was of the night for the day that we arrive at this point, and nor we will be able recouping in them tomorrow. However, to speed up the process she will be necessary to take some measures – to reestablish the credit, to adopt initiatives for the creation of jobs. Of the beginning the middle Fever of the Tulipas new features and to know as to face it. The pessimism finishes when pessimism has esperanao would finish when the economic agents come back to have hope. The hope supports the life, but the lost hope draws out the contractions. In the root of this paradox it is the notion of that ' ' booms' ' to they only precede ' ' booms' ' , but also they are cause of them. When it has uncertainty how much to the future the owners of companies cut its investments and the consumers cut its budgets. When making this the contraction if goes deep and the prices fall. The low prices of today, for more painful than can be, will finish if becoming the proper stimulaton it market, therefore more early or later the entrepreneur will come back to invest and the consumer to buy. Before you perceiving, the shareholding, real estate, automobile market (any market) will be the way of a recovery – it does not only ask when. In summary: – we exaggerate; – we commit error of always the same; – but we go recouping in them in the medium stated period. Bibliography: Periodical Leading Brazilian business newspaper, ' ' When we will see an overturn in U.S.A.? ' '. Published in 09 of March of 2009